A First Look at the Empirical Relation between Spot and Futures Electricity Prices in the US
نویسندگان
چکیده
In this paper we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California-Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium for six-month futures contracts is estimated to be 0.1328 percent per day or about 4 percent per month. Using a GARCH specification, we estimate minimum variance hedge ratios for electricity futures. Finally, we study the dynamic relation between spot and futures prices using an Exponential GARCH model and between the spot and futures returns series using a vector autoregression.
منابع مشابه
A First Look at Estimating the Relation between Spot and Futures Electricity Prices in the US
In this study we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California-Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium fo...
متن کاملA First Look at the Empirical Relation between Spot and Futures Electricity Prices in the United States
In this article we investigate the statistical properties of wholesale electricity spot and futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery at the California–Oregon Border. Using daily data for the years 1998 and 1999, we find that many of the characteristics of the electricity market can be viewed to be broadly consistent with efficient markets. The futures risk premium ...
متن کاملRational Expectations in Electricity Futures Markets? Empirical Insights from the Interaction between EEX Spot and Forward Prices
Non-storability of a commodity implies the independence of corresponding spot and futures prices. We investigate empirically the case of electricity and show that a relation does emerge between spots and forwards. This is because of the links in storable fuels used for production and behavioural biases in power trading. The latter cause a significant influence of the electricity spot price on t...
متن کاملCan the Gold Coin Futures Prices Forecast the Gold Coin Spot Prices at the Maturity Date?
This paper examines whether the gold coin futures prices in the Iran Mercantile Exchange can forecast accurately the gold coin spot prices at the maturity date. For this, it uses daily data of both futures and spot prices from Azar 1387 to Tir 1397. A cointegration analysis shows that in horizons shorter than 100 days, there is a significant one-to-one relation between these two prices which im...
متن کاملPricing of Commodity Futures Contract by Using of Spot Price Jump-Diffusion Process
Futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. Pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. According to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. So in this ar...
متن کامل